Let it Fly
Happy Friday ladies and gentlemen. 6 days til Turkey day, and I personally can’t wait to burn some PTO. We’ve got a few sneaky good games & a few Player Props I LOVE this weekend. Let’s get into it ⬇️
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CFB Week 13 🔑 Games
#22 Missouri @ #8 Oklahoma (OU - 6.5 T: 42.5) 12pm on ABC
Kinda weird to have this game at noon, right? I mean I know both of these teams are just good but this screams SEC night game on a day full of cupcake non-conference games. Anyway, we get it noon, so let’s talk about it.
Going to do something I hate doing, and taking an under here. With a total of 42.5, that’s pretty damn low, but the numbers don’t lie. Mizzou has the 6th best rush offense in America, with Ahmad Hardy fresh off a 300 yard performance (yes 300) against Miss State last weekend, leading the charge. They’re struggled throwing the ball since starter Beaux Pribula got hurt 3 weeks ago, but he is now listed as “Probable” to play, which means he’s still hurt but will play. I’m not taking much stock in that, as Mizzou will likely stick with Hardy on the ground. The gameplan for Oklahoma is the same as it’s been all season — lean on this top ranked defense, force turnovers, and be okay enough offensively to win. QB John Mateer still isn’t healthy — at about 82% I’d say — and this offense has struggled in his return. To be honest they’ve struggled since he went down, but they’ve found ways to win. Over his last 5 games, he’s only eclipsed 200 yards passing twice, and has 4 total TDs to 4 INTs, not great. This Mizzou defense is a force up front, and I see it causing all kinds of problems for Mateer. As you can see represented in the matchup graph above, these defenses far outweigh both offenses capabilities. For that, I’ll stick to my guns and take this disgusting under 42.5.
#15 USC @ #7 Oregon (ORE - 10.5 T: 53.5) 3:30pm on CBS
My game of the day right here. If you’re an avid reader, you’ve probably surmised I love QB Jayden Maiava and WR Makai Lemon. For that reason alone, I’ve continued to trust USC in pretty much every spot thus far this season. My Notre Dame friends spite me for this, and rightfully so I suppose, but for the most part they have not let me down. While I think this is one of Lincoln Riley’s best “B1G Ten” modeled teams, I don’t think that’s what they should lean on here. What has saved them this year has been their ability to play dirty, and win ugly (@ Iowa a few weeks ago is a game they usually lose), but what has given them the most success, is that offense. Ranking 3rd in YPG, 5th in points per play, 7th in PPG and 8th in Pass YPG, this is by FAR the best offense Oregon has seen.
For Oregon, they have the #1 pass defense in the country, the highest rated freshmen defender (per PFF) in Brandon Finney Jr — who will be tasked with guarding Makai Lemon — and the 3rd best total defense at 235 yards allowed per game. Now, you might be asking yourself, “Wow, that’s pretty insane, surely they’ve played a few top 100 offense?” and that’s a very valid question, to which the answer is yes, Indiana and Rutgers, that’s the end of the list. Don’t believe? Go ahead, dig through their schedule and tell me who I missed. To Oregon’s credit, I think they are good, but I think that defense is a bit of an inflated paper tiger, if you will. Just something to watch here as I think USC has some success and keeps this within the -10.5 spread.
#11 BYU @ Cincinnati (BYU - 2.5 T: 55.5) 8pm on FOX
We go to Nippert Stadium under the lights for a Mormon visitation into the Bear Cave. I don’t have any hard feelings about this game, but it is important in the world of Big 12 standings and implications. Texas Tech stands alone at the top of the conference at 7-1 with the head to head win over BYU, but the Cougars are right behind them in 2nd place, on track for a rematch in a few weeks. First, they have to get through 7-3 Cincy. Not exactly a daunting task, as the Bearcats defense has been subpar to say the least, but this is a sneaky spread. I’m not giving it much thought though, because I think the Cougars run the ball and run it well, and move to 10-1. Give me BYU to win and cover the -2.5
Other 🔑 Games To Watch
Arkansas (+9.5) @ #17 Texas — 3:30pm on ESPN
Fun Fact — Arkansas has a point differential of +18, and are 2-8. For my helmet wearers out there, that means they have scored more than they have given up, including a 40 point loss to Notre Dame earlier in the year. I think the fighting Petrino’s show some fight and put up a close one, covering the 9.5 points. (I also like the over 56.5 here btw)
Pittsburgh @ #16 Georgia Tech o60.5 — 7pm on ESPN
This feels free, and also a little high, but free nonetheless. I love the points here as Tech’s struggling defense (106th nationally) should keep the door open for Pitt long enough to make this a shootout. I’ll take the over 60.5.
Charlotte (+44.5) @ #4 Georgia — 12:45pm on SEC Network
Another fun fact for you, the Georgia Bulldogs are 0-13 against the spread in games under Kirby Smart when they are 40+ point favorites. I think they score and get up big, but it’s not Kirbys style to demolish these types of teams. Charlotte covers the large number.
Player Prop Plays of the Day ⭐️
🏅 Iowa QB Mark Gronowski — o0.5 rushing TDs
🏅 Georgia Tech QB Haynes King — o324.5 pass + rush yards
🏅 USC WR Makai Lemon — o7.5 receptions
🏅 Louisville RB Keyjuan Brown — o77.5 rushing yards
🏅 Oregon RB Noah Whittington — o82.5 rushing yards
The rest of my CFB Player Prop plays and all write-ups were sent out Wednesday in the “Midweek Props and Early Leans”, linked below. Check it out!
Be on the lookout for the NFL Week 12 Preview coming early Sunday morning! It will include my favorite game breakdowns and player prop picks 🔒
Let’s have another great weekend!
What a day of CFB!